by , 18 January 2012
Met with Alan to discuss the conceptual model for regime shift. His suggestion was to look at Sugihara’s method of prediction by looking at the difference paths of different systems - useful for when we have lots of data, even if it’s sparse for individual sites. Some papers to look at are :
- http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.2307/76859 - “Distinguishing Error from Chaos in Ecological Time Series”
- http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.2307/54223 - “Nonlinear Forecasting for the Classification of Natural Time Series”
- http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature06851 - “Why fishing magnifies fluctuations in fish abundance”
- http://www.pnas.org/content/93/6/2608.full.pdf - “Nonlinear control of heart rate variability in human infants”
- Question as relevant as whether a regime shift is coming is whether a regime shift is happening - whether you’ve entered a new dynamic regime. For high-dimensional systems, looking at summary data does a poor job of this - it’s better to look at the dynamics of many components. Could be interesting to compare % tree species to all of the species
Biggest question - Are there enough data at a site-level in the pollen?
- Read May, R.M. 1981. Models for single populations. in May, R.M., ed. Theoretical Ecology.
- Lecture on time delays and instability. See notes